Regulation and expansion of subnational public indebtedness in Mexico: a statistical approach, 2006-2015

Abstract

This research analyzes some determinants of the expansion of subnational indebtedness in Mexico, from 2006 to 2015, the growth of which was caused by regulatory, political, economic and financial factors. It is important to assess the limits of indebtedness regulation during and after the financial crisis of 2009, one of the biggest in recent years. As of 2010, the cost of credit declined, generating more incentives for debt contracting; therefore, the market fostered its expansion. Empirical verification of determinants is carried out through a regression model with panel data and information for the 32 Mexican states. The most robust results show that a strict tax regulation restricts indebtedness; furthermore, a decrease in the cost of credit, a greater payment capacity and the electoral cycle lead to increased indebtedness.